News Foresight
Global Europe 2030 / 2050
In November 2011, the EU Expert Group “The World and Europe up to 2030/2050: EU policies and research priorities (Global Europe 2030/2050)” concluded its work with a conference at Brussels. The Expert Group, in which K. Steinmüller participated, developed three scenarios about the long-term future of the EU in the global framework:
- „Nobody cares… but the European Commission”
- “EU under threats…”
- “An EU Renaissance… from European romanticism to European “reaal Politik””
A Report Summery is available on the EC website.
FESTOS
In December 2011, the project “FESTOS - Foresight of Evolving Security Threats Posed by Emerging Technologies” was finalised with a conference at Brussels. The foresight study, financed by the European Commission, was aimed at the „Dark Side of Technology“. Looking ahead to the year 2030, new risks posed by nanotechnologies, biotechnologies, and information technologies were identified in a scanning process. Based on this, the FESTOS team outlined in an “out of the box” brainstorming four “threat scenarios”.
- “Cyber-Insects Attack”
- “The Genetic Blackmailers”
- “At the Flea Market”
- “We’ll Change Your Mind”
K. Steinmüller was invited to write the scenarios – just like short science fiction stories. The scenarios are available on the FESTOS website.
X_Science Jury
As a member of the short movie jury, Karlheinz Steinmueller took part in the Fifth X_Science festival: Cinema between Science and Science-Fiction at Genova/Italy in March 2010. The jury assigned the Best Movie Award to "Skhizein", an animation movie by Jeremy Clapin (France): “For the originality of the screenplay which leaves room to a subtle irony; for the development of the idea which remains open to many interpretations and levels of meaning; for the graphics choice, simple but of strong impact and for the usage of diverse animation techniques but integrated to a perfect creation of story and character.” More information on the X_Science website.
New Papers
- Steinmüller, Karlheinz: „Virtuelle Geschichte und Zukunftsszenarien. Zum Gedankenexperiment in Zukunftsforschung und Geschichtswissenschaft“, in: Reinhold Popp / Elmar Schüll (eds.): Zukunftsforschung und Zukunftsgestaltung. Beiträge aus Wissenschaft und Praxis, Springer Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, p. 145 – 159 (a paper on the parallels between futurological scenarios and counterfactual history)
- Steinmüller, Karlheinz: „Evolutionäre Perspektiven des Menschen“, in: swissfuture, the Journal of the Schweizerischen Vereinigung für Zukunftsforschung, no. 2/09, p. 4-9 (on the long-term evolution of homo sapiens)
Since 2003, Robert Gaßner of the IZT and K. Steinmüller wrote 12 scenarios about useful applications of high tech. Finally, they have been published as a Report of the IZT - with an appendix about the applied methodology:
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Gaßner, Robert / Steinmüller, Karlheinz: Welche Zukunft wollen wir haben? Visionen, wie Forschung und Technik unser Leben verändern sollen. Zwölf Szenarios und ein Methodenexkurs, IZT-WerkstattBericht 104, Berlin ( Download from the IZT homepage)
During 2008 Karlheinz Steinmüller published several papers to different foresight issues. Three of them, written with German and international colleagues, appeared in a book of the European Foresight Monitoring Network (see www.efmn.info):
- “Emergent S + T Priorities in the Triadic Regions”, EFMN Foresight Brief No. 042
- “Linz 21”, EFMN Foresight Brief No. 085
- "Luxembourg’s Innovation and S&T Policy at a Turning Point“, EFMN Foresight Brief No. 099
A fresh look at wild cards provides a paper written for the Singapore "Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning" Program:
- “Wild Cards – Preparing for the Unpredictable”, in: Edna Tan Hong Ngoh and Hoo Tiang Boon (Eds.): Thinking about the Future. Strategic Anticipation and RAHS, Singapore 2008
Signs of the Future
Futurologists are regularily looking for sings of the future: trends, weak signals and others. But there is still no comprehensive theory of how these signs are identified, how they are interpreted, and how they are used. One step foreward is a special issue of the Journal of Semiotics (Zeitschrift für Semiotik - sorry, only in German language) on "future signs". The issue contains papers by K. Steinmueller (the editor), Rolf Kreibich and other specialists in the field. Abstracts are available at the publisher's site.
Other papers by Steinmueller which appeared recently:
- "Thinking out of the Box. Weak Singals and Wild Cards for European Regions" in the Finish journal Futura no. 2/2007
- "Wilde Zukuenfte" (Wild Futures) in SwissFuture no. 2/2007
Technologies for the Future
In March 2006 the Steinmueller book on future technologies has appeared. Originally the Steinmuellers wanted to give it the title "Plus Ultra." - Plus Ultra, the motto of the Spanish royal dynasty stands for the ambition to always go one step further into the unknown (or - for the Spaniards - to sail on). The age of big discoveries is not over, and the 21st century has a lot of surprising scientific and technological breakthroughs in its sleeves. Nano - bio - info - cogno... Will the human being itself be transformed by technology? What are the prospects, what are the big challenges, what ethical issues and what public controvercies are to be expected?
The book aims at taking stock of progress so far and at assessing what can be expected. "Plus Ultra", alas, did not really work as a title. In German ears it is associated with ads about sanitary towels.